JSM 2004 Online Program

Abstract #301235

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Activity Number:	398
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Thursday, August 12, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor:	Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #301235
Title:	Spatial Precipitation Extremes
Author(s):	Ulrike Schneider*+
Companies:	University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Address:	P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000,
Keywords:	spatial statistics ; extreme value theory ; Bayesian statistics
Abstract:	We consider (hourly) rain gauge records collected over various stations throughout Colorado and investigate this dataset with regard to its extreme behavior and spatial dependence due to the unique topography and meterological properties of this region. To build the statistical model, we use the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) within a threshold model, along with a Bayesian approach to incorporate the spatial structure of the different stations. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to obtain parameter and uncertainty estimates. We also discuss how to model the apparent seasonal effects of precipitation.

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