JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #301206

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Activity Number: 399
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 12, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #301206
Title: A Pattern-mixture Model for Panel Nonresponse in the Current Employment Statistics Survey
Author(s): Kennon R. Copeland*+
Companies: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Address: 2 Massachusetts Ave., NE, Washington, DC, 20212,
Keywords: late reporting ; nonreporting ; nonignorable nonresponse ; establishment survey ; estimate revisions ; panel survey
Abstract:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey collects employment, hours, and earnings data monthly from a sample of over 300,000 U.S. establishments. To provide timely information, preliminary estimates are generated three to four weeks after the survey reference period, using a weighted link-relative estimator. Final estimates are released two months later, incorporating data from late reporters. CES survey nonresponse in the preliminary estimates consists of late reporting and nonreporting. While both affect the overall accuracy of the CES estimates to some unknown extent, the impact of late reporting is more directly assessed by examining revisions between preliminary and final estimates. Overall accuracy can be assessed by examining annual benchmark revisions. The performance of a nonignorable nonresponse model, assuming month-to-month change varies by reporting status, will be compared to that of the current proportional regression model. In addition, link-relative estimates based on a refined estimation cell definition will be evaluated. Minimizing the magnitude of both final and benchmark revisions is a key objective.

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