JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #301157

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Activity Number: 369
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #301157
Title: New Developments in SAIPE County Median Household Income Models
Author(s): Geoffrey M. Gee*+
Companies: U.S. Census Bureau
Address: 4700 Silver Hill R., Washington, DC, 20233-8500,
Keywords: small-area estimation ; hierarchal Bayes models
Abstract:

The U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Poverty and Income Estimates (SAIPE) program provides select poverty and income estimates for states, counties, and school districts. Recent research on the SAIPE county median household income (MHI) model has focused on two areas. The dependent variable in SAIPE county MHI production models has been three years of Current Population Survey (CPS) data that are centered on the target year. The primary justification for combining data across time is that the CPS single-year sample size for most counties is quite small. Including additional data from neighboring years improves the variance of the estimates; however, it also introduces unmeasured error due to differences in income across time. In response to the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), the CPS sample size was significantly increased, opening the possibility that SAIPE county MHI estimates based on a CPS single-year estimate might be feasible. Two alternative models have been developed. The first model is similar in form to the present SAIPE production model with some exceptions.

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