JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300941

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Activity Number: 265
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 10, 2004 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #300941
Title: A Formulation of Casual Inference for Population Interventions Based on an Experimental Paradigm
Author(s): Steven Mark*+
Companies: National Cancer Institute
Address: 6120 Executive Blvd., Rockville, MD, 20852-4910,
Keywords: causal inference ; attributable risk ; populaton interventions ; noncompliance ; absolute risk ; confounding
Abstract:

Population interventions are considered when there is evidence that altering the prevalence of an exposure will change the rates of disease; there are feasible mechanisms for altering population levels of exposure; the predicted magnitude in the change in disease incidence is sufficient to justify a particular intervention. I discuss the assumptions required for investigators to accurately predict disease rates in a post-intervention population. The assumptions and inference are formulated in terms of correspondences between the probability distributions of random variables in the pre-intervention and post-intervention populations. The inferential structure is organized to correspond to the usual temporal sequence of population intervention experiments.

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Revised March 2004