JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300870

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Activity Number: 146
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #300870
Title: What's the Probability that Wildfire Will Threaten My Home?
Author(s): David L. Martell*+ and Maria M. Sanchez-Guisandez and Cui Wenbin
Companies: University of Toronto and University of Toronto and University of Toronto
Address: 33 Willcocks Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 3B3, Canada
Keywords: wildland fire occurrence ; forest ; fuel management
Abstract:

Wildfire threatens homes in many Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) areas but such losses can often be mitigated by implementing fire prevention measures, initial attack strategies and fuel management measures near threatened structures. We describe a WUI Decision Support System (WUIDSS) that can be used to predict the probability that wildfire will burn any point on a landscape and thereby threaten specific homes and other structures. We simulate daily fire occurrence and spread processes which are influenced by fuel, weather, topography, and human behavior. Managers can use the WUIDSS to interactively delineate proposed spatially explicit fuel treatments and other measures on a digital map of a landscape and then evaluate those proposed strategies in terms of their potential impact on burn probabilities across the landscape.

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