JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300867

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Activity Number: 369
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #300867
Title: School District Population Estimates Methodology Research Using Administrative Data Sources
Author(s): Monique M. Oosse*+
Companies: U.S. Census Bureau
Address: 8751 Cedarcrest Dr., Traverse City, MI, 49684,
Keywords: school districts ; population estimates ; school-age children ; public school enrollment ; census data ; regression models
Abstract:

This paper describes efforts by the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Division to develop new methods for producing school district population estimates. The current method is not accurate for school districts that experience rates of population change that are substantially different from the corresponding county-level population changes. To improve the accuracy of the school district population estimates, several methods using the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) public school enrollment data and the 1990 Census were developed. One method treats school enrollment data as direct indicators of school district population and population change. The NCES data are used in regression models as predictor variables for the school district population estimates. A third approach combines information about population changes from the NCES data with preliminary estimates developed from the shares method currently in use. The test estimates are evaluated by school district size, type, location, and other characteristics using Census 2000 data. This paper also describes the geographic coverage for the school-age population in the 1989-1990 and 1999-2000 NCES data.

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