JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300842

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Activity Number: 297
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #300842
Title: An Argument for the Existence of Streak Shooting in Basketball
Author(s): Mark Hallahan*+
Companies: College of the Holy Cross
Address: Dept.t of Psychology, Worcester, MA, 01610-2395,
Keywords: streak shooting
Abstract:

This paper questions the widespread belief that perceptions of streak shooting in basketball are illusory. Limitations of the existing research on this topic will be discussed. Past research that has failed to find statistically significant dependence within shot sequences has had low statistical power and has not adequately considered the possibility of self-correcting sequences (i.e., negative dependence). Three sources of shot data, the NBA long-distance shootout (1994-2003), Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky's (1985, study 4) college basketball sample, and a new sample of recreational players, raise further questions about the assumption that shot sequences resemble a random process. These data indicate that (a) there are stable individual differences in the degree and direction of dependence in individuals' shot sequences, and (b) distributions of shooters have shapes that differ from a normal distribution of error for a population with no dependence among shots. These data support a model in which there are distinct types of individual shooters, including both streaky and self-correcting shooters, as well, if not better, than a model of shot sequences as entirely random.

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