JSM 2004 Online Program

Abstract #300840

This is the preliminary program for the 2004 Joint Statistical Meetings in Toronto, Canada. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2004); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	297
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor:	Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #300840
Title:	Bowlers' Hot Hands
Author(s):	Gary Smith*+
Companies:	Pomona College
Address:	425 North College Avenue, Claremont, CA, 91711,
Keywords:	hot hands ; bowling ; self-efficacy
Abstract:	Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky's (1985) analysis of basketball data debunked the common perception that players sometimes have "hot hands." However, their basketball data do not control for several confounding influences. Our analysis of professional bowling indicates that, for many bowlers, the probability of rolling a strike is not independent of previous outcomes and the number of strikes rolled varies more across games than can be explained by chance alone. For example, most bowlers have a higher strike proportion after j consecutive strikes than after j consecutive nonstrikes, and this difference becomes more pronounced as j increases from one to four.

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