JSM 2004 Online Program

Abstract #300786

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Activity Number:	213
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Tuesday, August 10, 2004 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	SSC
Abstract - #300786
Title:	A New Estimator for the UK Retail Sales Inquiry
Author(s):	Peter Brodie*+
Companies:	Office for National Statistics
Address:	Room D140, Government Bldgs., Newport, International, NP10 8XG, United Kingdom
Keywords:	retail sales ; matched sample ; Drift ; trading day
Abstract:	Estimation for the UK Retail Sales Inquiry/Index up until October 2003 was based on movements of the matched sample. The index was compared to a base value in January 1995 and consequently prone to "drift." This paper describes the analysis carried out by Methodology Group of ONS to investigate the accuracy of the index. The paper describes the issues that were addressed (choice of estimator, optimization of sample allocation, outlier detection and treatment) as well as the remaining issues (trading day weights), which were not, and outlines the recommendations made.

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