JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300618

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Activity Number: 146
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #300618
Title: A State-space Model for Forecasting Wildland Fire Risk
Author(s): Haiganoush K. Preisler*+
Companies: PSW Forest Service
Address: 800 Buchanan Street, Albany, CA, 94710,
Keywords: generalized additive models ; fire danger indices ; fire occurrence probabilities ; fire weather ; Oregon ; sampled data
Abstract:

Wildland fire managers have long desired to know the risks of severe fire events well in advance of its happening. A number of actions are available to address severe fire seasons. However, contingency actions have associated costs and timeliness issues. These issues require information about the likelihood of fire occurrence. We describe a probability model for forecasting wildland fire risks based on nonlinear state-space models. By the choice of variables included in the state space, we can handle many situations, for example, the history of the process (locations and times of fires) up to the present in addition to characteristics of the environment that might serve as explanatories. We found the model to be very useful for assessing the importance of commonly used fire danger indices and for forecasting expected numbers of fires in a region.

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Revised March 2004