JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300441

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Activity Number: 90
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 9:00 AM to 10:50 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #300441
Title: The Use of Repeated Cross-sections Markov Model to Estimate Overweight Transition Probabilities among Brazilian Children and Adolescents
Author(s): Fernando A.B. Colugnati*+ and Francisco Louzada-Neto and José Augusto A.C. Taddei
Companies: Federal University of São Paulo and Federal University of São Carlos and Federal University of São Paulo
Address: R. Loefgreen, 1647, São Paulo, International, 04040-032, Brazil
Keywords: Markov models ; pseudo-panel ; repeated cross-sections ; transition probabilities ; overweight ; obesity
Abstract:

Overweight in childhood and adolescence is epidemic in emerging urban societies. The knowledge on overweight onset dynamics, in terms of population characteristics, plays an important role to plan and implement preventive programs and policies, identifying social and regional strata presenting higher transition rates. However, the difficulties in conducting prospective studies, due to high costs and long-term results, make Repeated Cross-Sections (Pseudo Panel) the best approach to estimating overweight growing rates for different population strata. Aggregate data from various comparable sources are utilized to estimate the transition probabilities, where individual information is substituted by population profiles that are considered as population cohorts. Finally, the results are compared with the traditional dynamic Markov Model approach using data from a seven-year prospective study carried out among Brazilian students.

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