A Geo-spatial Approach to Allocating Wildfire Mitigation Funds

• Activity Number: 146
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Ronald E. McRoberts*+
• Companies: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service
• Keywords: logistic model ; satellite imagery

Abstract

In recent years, the forests of the western United States have seemingly been ablaze due to wildfires. These fires have consumed vast quantities of timber resources, devastated wildlife habitat, destroyed recreational opportunities, and endangered rural communities. Multiple federal programs, including Cooperative Forestry of the USDA Forest Service, make funds available to rural communities to simultaneously treat forested areas to mitigate wildfire risk and build infrastructure in economically depressed areas. Because sufficient funds are not available to treat all forest lands thought to be at risk of forest wildfire, a defensible approach to allocating available funds was required. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to identify forested lands in each region of the U.S. that simultaneously satisfied three criteria: (1) in close proximity to rural communities, (2) in need of economic assistance, and (3) at risk of wildfire. Digital layers corresponding to the first two criteria were constructed using census data. For the third criterion, a digital layer of logistic model predictions of the relative risk of forest wildfire was used.