JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300375

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Activity Number: 59
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Sunday, August 8, 2004 : 6:00 PM to 7:50 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #300375
Title: Statistical Challenges in the Analysis of Mass Extinctions
Author(s): Steve C. Wang*+
Companies: Swarthmore College
Address: Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, Swarthmore, PA, 19081,
Keywords: paleontology ; Poisson process ; likelihood ratio test ; Bayesian model ; uniform distribution ; fossil record
Abstract:

Much of our knowledge of the history of life comes from the fossil record. However, the fossil record is notoriously incomplete; in fact, usually more data are missing than are observed. This incompleteness presents interesting challenges for paleontologists and statisticians. We describe approaches for modeling the incompleteness of the fossil record in the context of mass extinctions. These extinctions--such as the end-Cretaceous event in which the dinosaurs perished--have profoundly shaped the course of life on earth. To infer the causes of mass extinctions, it is important to estimate the times of extinction of the species involved. For instance, how can we determine if a set of species went extinct simultaneously or gradually? If they went extinct simultaneously, how can we estimate their common time of extinction? If they went extinct gradually, how long did the extinctions last? We will discuss methods for answering such questions that take into account the incompleteness of the fossil record.

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