Forecasting Population Changes in Croatia until 2050

• Activity Number: 340
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
• Author(s): Ante Rozga*+
• Companies: Ekonomski Fakultet Split
• Keywords: population ; mortality ; life expectancy ; immigration

Abstract

Croatia has undergone dramatical demographic changes in recent years. Population felt from 4,540,641 in 1991 to 4,422,248 in 2003. This is partially the consequence of the war, but there has been a downward trend for decades. Number of live births fell from 76,156 in 1960 to just under 40,000 in 2003, a drop of 47.5%, which is among the biggest drops in the Europe. The number of deaths increased from 41,361 in 1960 to 50,569 in 2003. Using an optimistic scenario, we could expect 4,388,085 people living in Croatia in the year 2050. Infant mortality rates would fall from 11.46 in 1991 to 3.65 in 2050. The life expectancy would rise from 69.51 to 78.47 years. Deaths per 1,000 population would remain steady, from 12.82 in 1991 to 13.01 in 2050. This is the projection if some measures would be taken to stimulate population growth. If these measures were taken but unsuccessful, the worst scenario would be 3,350,000 people living in Croatia in the year 2050. The number of people over 65 years of age would outnumber those under 15, posing a big problem for Croatian economy. In this scenario there would be a lack of work force, and the immigration policy should be employed.