JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #301689

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Activity Number: 87
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #301689
Title: Immunity to Plague for Gerbils in Kazahstan is Seasonal
Author(s): Siyun Park*+ and Kung-sik Chan and Nils C. Stenseth
Companies: University of Iowa and University of Iowa and University of Oslo
Address: Dept. of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Iowa City, IA, 52242-1409,
Keywords: binomial distribution ; continuous-time Markov chain ; mixed-effect generalized nonlinear model ; penal of time series
Abstract:

The gerbil population in Kazakhstan is a natural focus of plague where the disease can be transmitted to humans by vectors, mainly, fleas. A long-term monitoring study of this natural system was undertaken from 1949-1995, for tracking the prevalence of plague in the gerbil population. In particular, in both spring and fall of each year, samples of gerbils were given bacteriological and serological tests for plague symptoms. While bacteriological tests detect for the presence of plague bacteria and hence the plague disease in the animal at the sampling time, serological tests detect for the presence of antibodies to plague bacteria. Consequently, the serological test data are indicative of past infections, and may shed light on the structure of immunity to plague. Using a continuous-time Makov chain model, we deduce a mixed-effect generalized nonlinear model for analyzing the serological test data, and find that for this gerbil system, immunity to plague is seasonal. Specifically, gerbils appeared to lose immunity more quickly in spring than in fall.

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