JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #301627

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Activity Number: 386
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #301627
Title: Bayesian Modeling of Hydrograph
Author(s): James Merleau*+
Companies: Universite de Montreal
Address: CP 6128, succursale "centre-ville", Montreal, PQ, H3C 3J7,
Keywords: Bayesian nonparametric modeling ; registration ; regression splines
Abstract:

The generation of synthetic hydrographs which reproduce accurately the typical characteristics of observed ones is a standing problem in hydrology. The difficulty of building a hydrograph generator stems from the varying periodicity of salient features from one year to another; this changing periodicity makes averaging of observed hydrographs useless in order to get a standard hydrograph. Registration of observed hydrographs, according to certain important characteristics such as the spring flood, can be used to obtain this profile. A Bayesian nonparametric model based on spline functions can then be used to generate hydrographs. From the posterior density on the spline coefficients, it is possible to generate sets of coefficients that define synthetic hydrographs which exhibit the typical features encountered in observed hydrographs.

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