JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #301585

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Activity Number: 244
Type: Luncheons
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 10, 2004 : 12:30 PM to 1:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #301585
Title: Employment--Which Number to Pick?
Author(s): George S. Werking*+
Companies: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Address: 2 Massachusetts Ave., NE, Washington, DC, 20212,
Keywords: employment change ; economic cycle
Abstract:

Monthly employment change is always a highly scrutinized number by policymakers, the financial markets, and forecasters, but these numbers take on a significant added interest during turning points in the economy. Each month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes two measures of monthly employment change: one measure from the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is a 60,000-unit household survey, and the other from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which is a 400,000-unit establishment survey. While monthly figures can differ in size and direction, historically the longer-term trends track well. However, the most recent recovery period (November 2001 forward) has shown significantly different trends for the two surveys and has lead to numerous articles being written on the apparent discrepancy. This discussion will focus on the scope and methodology differences between CPS and CES, and what we know about the discrepancy in employment growth.

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Revised March 2004