JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #301218

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Activity Number: 409
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 12, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Health Policy Statistics
Abstract - #301218
Title: A Prospective Approach to Decision-making for Conducting Public Health Interventions
Author(s): Thomas Wasser*+
Companies: Lehigh Valley Hospital
Address: 17th & Chew Sts., Allentown, PA, 18011,
Keywords: interventions ; public health ; health policy ; theoretical model ; biostatistics ; model-building
Abstract:

A model is presented for describing the prospective feasibility of public health programs. This is a theoretical set theory solution containing three elements: (1) proportion of population that will receive the intervention divided into the proportion that possess the behavior to be changed and those that don't possess the trait; (2) effect size (ES), an index of potential success of the intervention; and (3) the proportion of population eligible for but not receiving the intervention. The model yields a Utility score (U), which is compared to the distribution of all possible values of U computed by simulation algorithm. U distribution was divided into fifths and given feasibility ratings in terms of expected impact: none, poor, moderate, good, and excellent. Distributions are presented in two ways: (1) Distribution cutpoints of U for 10 ES from 2% to 20% (the most common effect sizes in the public health setting), and (2) ES = 0.99 (representing a successful immunization program). While this data simulation is still theoretical, the U distribution is put forth as a first step to prospectively quantify public health interventions.

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