JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #301191

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Activity Number: 48
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 8, 2004 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
Abstract - #301191
Title: Bayesian Accelerated Degradation Models
Author(s): Arzu Onar*+ and Fridtjof Thomas
Companies: University of Miami and Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute
Address: 406 KE Faculty Wing, Coral Gables, FL, 33129,
Keywords: mixed effects models ; MCMC ; power-law model
Abstract:

This presentation will discuss Bayesian accelerated degradation models, which have been applied to a dataset collected during a designed experiment at the Florida Department of Transportation under accelerated conditions. Acceleration was achieved both via increased temperatures and via the use of a Heavy Vehicle Simulator. The experiment was designed to compare three binder types as well as to investigate the effect of increased temperatures. The analysis presented here utilizes mixed effects models, where the parameter estimates as well as the required distributions are obtained via MCMC. Competing models, which include the frequently encountered power-law model as well as other more complex models suggested by the data, are compared and contrasted both from a statistical and practical perspective. The implications in terms of inference and extrapolation as well as in terms of future designs of such experiments are also discussed.

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Revised March 2004