JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300652

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Activity Number: 179
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 10, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #300652
Title: Nonidentifiability of Population Size from Capture-recapture Data with Heterogeneous Detection Probabilities
Author(s): William A. Link*+
Companies: U.S.G.S. Patuxent Wildlife Research Center
Address: 11510 American Holly Dr., Laurel, MD, 20708,
Keywords: mark-recapture ; heterogeneity ; detection ; population ; wildlife ; ecology
Abstract:

Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus, even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. I illustrate the problem using the simple closed population model M_h.

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Revised March 2004