JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300620

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Activity Number: 308
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Business and Economics Statistics Section
Abstract - #300620
Title: Forecasting Models Applied to Data Updates Over Time Periods
Author(s): Martin B. Selzer*+
Companies: National Exchange Carrier Association
Address: 80 South Jefferson Road, Whippany, New Jersey, NJ, 07981,
Keywords: forecasting ; nonlinear models ; time-series
Abstract:

Certain businesses require forecasting updates from an initial value. The updates to a data point can be predicted using models if historical data of such updates is available. At any particular time during the update period, the models give a final prediction of the data point. The National Exchange Carrier Association makes forecasts under such conditions for rural telecommunications companies making updates to revenue and cost data submitted monthly. The current research uses models that assume a first observation fixed and estimate a trajectory to a final value using nonlinear methods. It applies these models to forecasting revenues and costs and compares results to predictions currently made by expert managers.

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