JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300594

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Activity Number: 443
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 12, 2004 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Education
Abstract - #300594
Title: The Doomsday Argument: An Intriguing Example of Bayes Theorem
Author(s): Dean Nelson*+
Companies: University of Pittsburgh, Greensburg
Address: , , ,
Keywords: doomsday ; Bayes theorem
Abstract:

An argument based on Bayes theorem was put forward in the late 1980s that purports to show that the human race will die out sooner rather than later. Because of this gloomy conclusion, it was called the Doomsday Argument. Because the argument is based on a simple application of Bayes theorem and because it reaches a disturbing conclusion with intrinsic interest to anyone in the human race, the Doomsday Argument makes a useful example to initiate discussion in an undergraduate probability theory class. The disturbing conclusion leads one to question the assumptions used to assign probabilities, what a probability model can infer, or whether a model is even appropriate. If the assumptions of the first model are accepted, a similar conclusion in the opposite direction in time can be shown, that the human race is young rather than old.

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