JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300450

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Activity Number: 302
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: WNAR
Abstract - #300450
Title: Statistical Inference of the Lead Time in Periodic Screening
Author(s): Dongfeng Wu*+ and Gary L. Rosner and Lyle Broemeling
Companies: Mississippi State University and University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center and University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center
Address: Dept. of Math and Statistics, Mississippi State, MS, 39759,
Keywords: periodic screening ; lead time ; early detection ; breast cancer ; sojourn time ; sensitivity
Abstract:

Periodic screening examinations for aggressive disease have been existed for many years, one of the most important characteristics is lead time, which is the length of time the diagnosis is advanced by screening. The effectiveness of the periodic screening program is directly related to the lead time. We developed a probability model for periodic screening, derived the probability distribution function for the lead time, which is a mixture of a point mass and a continuous distribution. The reason is that the lead time is zero for the interval incident cases. Simulation studies are carried out using the HIP data. It is shown that the proportion of breast cancer patients who truly benefit from the periodic screening varies from 57% to 80% depends on the screening intervals. Though the study is focused on female breast cancer, the method is also applicable to other kinds of chronic disease.

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