JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300431

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Activity Number: 340
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
Abstract - #300431
Title: What is the Ideal Size for an Iowa Town?
Author(s): Russell V. Lenth*+ and Tom W. Rice
Companies: University of Iowa and University of Iowa
Address: Dept. of Statistics, Iowa City, IA, 52242,
Keywords: community size ; splines ; bootstrap ; constrained estimation ; smoothing
Abstract:

We will present an analysis of information collected from 99 randomly selected small Iowa towns (populations range from 500 to 10,000). The information consists of community-level U.S. census data and responses to surveys of the towns' residents. Some of the survey variables measure civic attributes about the communities, such as the extent to which respondents agreed that their whole community comes together when something needs to be done and the extent to which people look out for each other in their community. Analysis shows a curvilinear relationship between these civic attributes and town size, with towns of approximately 800 tending to be more civic than small or larger communities. To investigate this relationship, we fitted (suitably constrained) splines to the satisfaction data, with certain demographic variables as covariates, and used bootstrap methods to derive confidence bounds on the optimum population. We will discuss the models used, how the constraints are implemented, the results, and plans for further investigations when more up-to-date data become available.


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