JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300330

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Activity Number: 65
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Cmte on Statisticians in Defense and National Security
Abstract - #300330
Title: How Do I Know if I'm Sick?
Author(s): Robert Armstrong*+ and Stephen Prior
Companies: National Defense University and Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Address: Bldg. 20, Suite 3, Washington, DC, 20319-5066,
Keywords:
Abstract:

The fear of a bioterrorism attack has led policymakers to propose various monitoring schemes. The premise for monitoring is that the earlier we detect the fact that a population has been attacked, the greater chance we have to mitigate the event. No attempt has been made, however, to fully evaluate the value of data coming from various monitoring sources--e.g., biosensors, sentinel populations, absenteeism reporting, etc. In particular, no evaluation has been done to estimate the weight that any particular data stream has, with respect to final decisions made by policymakers; for example, whether to vaccinate a population or not, or whether or not to impose a quarantine. Using a modification of a standard military wargame approach, this study has conducted an analysis of 10 separate data streams and their influence on decisions made by "policymakers" in the wargame. Using an analysis of variance, it has sought to determine the most useful combination of data streams and makes recommendations for public funding of an integrated "system of systems" for biodetection.

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