Abstract #302401

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JSM 2003 Abstract #302401
Activity Number: 436
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 7, 2003 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #302401
Title: Modification of the Spatial Scan for Prospective Real-Time Outbreak Detection: Use of a Space-Time Permutation
Author(s): Farzad Mostashari*+ and Martin Kulldorff and Jessica Hartman and Rick Heffernan
Companies: NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and University of Connecticut and New York Academy and New York City Department
Address: 125 Worth St., New York, NY, 10013-4006,
Keywords: surveillance ; bioterrorism ; scan statistic ; cluster ; outbreak detection ; syndomic surveillance
Abstract:

The increasing availability of real-time electronic health or consumer data is promising for the detection of naturally-occuring or intentional outbreaks. The sensitivity and specificity of these systems for localized outbreaks could be improved with more sophisticated methods of spatial cluster detection. However, there may be persistent geographical clustering in these data at baseline, which is not of interest for the purpose of outbreak detection. We therefore present a modification of the scan statistic that identifies unusual spatial-temporal clusters while taking into account purely spatial and purely temporal trends. This algorithm has been successfully applied to reportable infectious diseases and West Nile virus-associated dead bird clusters in New York City.

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