Abstract #301708

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301708
Activity Number: 133
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2003 : 12:00 PM to 1:50 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #301708
Title: Estimating Intensity Functions on Multistate Markov Models with Application to the Nun Study
Author(s): Juan Carlos Salazar*+ and Suzanne Tyas and David Snowdon and Mark Derosiers and Kathryn Riley and Marta S. Mendiondo and Richard J. Kryscio
Companies: University of Kentucky and University of Kentucky and University of Kentucky and University of Kentucky and University of Kentucky and University of Kentucky and University of Kentucky
Address: 1330 Nancy Hanks Rd., Lexington, KY, 40504,
Keywords: Markov process ; transition intensities ; likelihood ; dementia ; aging ; cognitive impairment
Abstract:

We consider a multistate Markov process with two competing absorbing states (dementia and death) and several transitory nondemented states. Transitions among states are determined by intensity functions which account for the effect of covariates. The likelihood function is derived, and inference for estimating the effects of the covariates on transitions is determined when the process can be viewed as a Markov chain and when the likelihood function can be factored as the product of two functions: one for the transitions among nonabsorbing states and another for the transitions to absorbing states. Inference for more general cases such as when the intensity functions are assumed to be time-dependent will be discussed. These approaches are illustrated using a longitudinal study of aging and Alzheimer's disease conducted in a population of 678 Catholic sisters (nuns) aged 75 to 102 when the study began in 1991.

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