Abstract #301647

This is the preliminary program for the 2003 Joint Statistical Meetings in San Francisco, California. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 2-5, 2003); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

To View the Program:
You may choose to view all activities of the program or just parts of it at any one time. All activities are arranged by date and time.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors
and not necessarily those of the ASA or its board, officers, or staff.

Back to main JSM 2003 Program page
JSM 2003 Abstract #301647
Activity Number: 308
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #301647
Title: A Directional Derivative Approach to Spatio-temporal Monitoring of Disease
Author(s): Allan B. Clark*+ and Andrew Booth Lawson
Companies: University of South Carolina and University of South Carolina
Address: Department of Epidemiology, Columbia, SC, 29201,
Keywords: disease mapping ; kernel regression
Abstract:

Individual level disease maps display an estimate of the relative risk of disease over a spatial region. These maps are usually based on observing a set of spatial locations (addresses) of cases and controls (e.g., Kelsall and Diggle 1998). We consider the extension where the cases and controls form a realization of a space-time point process (addresses and dates) and interest lies in assessing if the first-order intensity of cases is changing with respect to time. Secondary interest lies in locating where, in space, the process is changing. In order to estimate the instantaneous change in the first-order intensity over time we consider a nonparametric estimator of the directional derivative, with respect to time, of the spatial surface. The directional derivative can be used to assess for both sudden changes of the first-order intensity (after a suitable standardisation), or it can be used to assess for gradual changes via an accumulation over time. The properties of this method are assessed via an asymptotic expansion for large samples and for small samples via a simulation study.

  • The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
  • Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2003 program

JSM 2003 For information, contact meetings@amstat.org or phone (703) 684-1221. If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.
Revised March 2003