Abstract #301544

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301544
Activity Number: 300
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #301544
Title: Relationship Between PSA Growth and Prostate Cancer Biology: A Bayesian Analysis
Author(s): Lurdes Y. T. Inoue*+ and Ruth B. Etzioni and Elizabeth H. Slate
Companies: University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and Medical University of South Carolina
Address: Dept. of Biostatistics, Mail Stop 357232, Seattle, WA, 98195-7232,
Keywords: Bayesian analysis ; hierarchical models ; natural history ; prostate cancer
Abstract:

Prostate cancer is the most common nondermatologic malignancy among men in the United States. Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) is a biomarker commonly used to screen for prostate cancer. Several studies have examined PSA growth rates in men with and without a prostate cancer diagnosis. However, the relationship between PSA growth and disease progression is not well established. In particular, the probability of progressing to metastic (noncurable) disease as a function of PSA is not known. Such a knowledge may play an important role in determining optimal PSA screening intervals for early detection of the disease. This paper presents a meta-analysis of PSA growth and disease progression from three retrospective studies with a total of 184 cancer patients. In each study, longitudinal measurements of PSA taken before diagnosis are available along with the stage of the disease at the time of detection. We use a Bayesian hierarchical two-change point model while accounting for between-study effects. Posterior predictive distributions at the transition times are used to determine the probability of metastic transition at a range of PSA levels.

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