Abstract #301097

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301097
Activity Number: 78
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2003 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Stat. Sciences
Abstract - #301097
Title: Hierarchical Modeling of the Evolution of a Flu Season
Author(s): Todd L. Graves*+ and Richard R. Picard
Companies: Los Alamos National Laboratory and Los Alamos National Laboratory
Address: Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos, NM, 87545-0001,
Keywords: biosurveillance ; forecasting ; influenza ; time series
Abstract:

We present a method for predicting pneumonia and influenza mortality as a flu season evolves. We model the timing, duration, and severity of a flu season using a hierarchical model with data from several past seasons, in which weekly flu mortality in a city has an overdispersed Poisson distribution. This approach allows us to deal directly with year-to-year variation and statistically characterize that variation over time. We also challenge the conventional wisdom regarding the extent to which influenza epidemics have occurred in the U.S. during the past 40 years.

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