Abstract #300897

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300897
Activity Number: 348
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Government Statistics
Abstract - #300897
Title: Integrating Survey, Demographic, and Modeling Methods
Author(s): Howard R. Hogan*+ and William R. Bell and Allen L. Schirm and Lynn Weidman
Companies: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau and Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. and U.S. Census Bureau
Address: 695 Woodland Way, Owings, MD, 20736-9357,
Keywords: coverage measurement ; iIntercensal population estimates
Abstract:

Statisticians and demographers bring different paradigms to modeling and data analysis. Statistics as a discipline relies upon probability theory and normally operates using explicit mathematical models, procedures, and assumptions. Empirical assessment of uncertainty is a key feature. Demography proceeds from a core body of knowledge drawn from biological, sociological, and other principles.This demographic knowledge, reflected in, for example, age/period/cohort identities, life tables, and fertility schedules, is often applied using implicit models. Statistical and other uncertainty in the models may be ignored or acknowledged only informally. Thus, key differences between the statistical and demographic paradigms are (1) use of explicit mathematical models in statistics versus implicit models in demography, and (2) use of different approaches to recognize and account for uncertainty. These paradigm differences can lead to difficulties when integrating the two disciplines to address specific analysis problems. To illustrate the issues, we discuss the efforts to integrate the disciplines in two programs: intercensal population estimates and census coverage estimates.

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