Abstract #300246

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300246
Activity Number: 204
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2003 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Stat. Sciences
Abstract - #300246
Title: Incorporating Pessimistic and Optimistic Priors into the Design of Bayesian Phase II Clinical Trials
Author(s): Byron Jon Gajewski*+ and Matthew S. Mayo
Companies: University of Kansas and Kansas Cancer Institute
Address: 3901 Rainbow Blvd., Kansas City, KS, 66160-0001,
Keywords: mixture distribution ; beta ; binomial
Abstract:

There are a number of papers that discuss Phase II clinical trials from a Bayesian perspective. A recent article by Tan and Machin focuses on sample size calculations, in particular, the determination of sample size, using diffuse prior specification, based on the probability that the true response proportion exceeds a pre-specified target. We extend these sample size calculations to include informative prior distributions using various strategies that allow both optimistic and pessimistic researchers direct involvement in the sample size decision making. In the case of strong information from both a pessimist and an optimist we combine their information with a mixture of beta distributions and investigate its effect on sample size calculations relative to the diffuse case.

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