Abstract #300062

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300062
Activity Number: 226
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2003 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: ENAR
Abstract - #300062
Title: Bayesian Modeling of Age-Specific Survival in Bird Nesting Studies with Double Interval Censored Data
Author(s): Zhuoqiong (Chong) He*+
Companies: University of Missouri, Columbia
Address: Dept. of Statistics, Columbia, MO, 65211-0001,
Keywords: Bayesian Estimation ; interval censored data ; age-specific survival rate ; bird nest ; latent variable ; Gibbs sampling
Abstract:

In this paper, a Bayesian model for the age-specific nest survival rates is presented to handle the irregular visit case. Independent Beta priors are placed on the age-specific hazard rates and conditional encounter rates. A two-stage hierarchical prior is placed on the number of encountered nests. The posterior is proved to be proper under a mild condition. Some latent variables are introduced to simplify the likelihood function. All the conditional posterior densities are standard densities such as beta, gamma, Poisson, negative binomial. and multinormal. Therefore, the Gibbs sampling computation is efficient. The reference prior under this model is derived and the hyperparameter specification problem is solved to some extent. The simulation result shows that the proposed Bayesian model provides accurate and stable estimates of survival rates. The model is also applied to a real nest data.

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