Abstract #302242

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JSM 2003 Abstract #302242
Activity Number: 403
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Consulting
Abstract - #302242
Title: Flexible Optimal Decision-Making in an Uncertain Environment
Author(s): John L. Adams*+
Companies: RAND Corporation
Address: 1700 Main St., Big Bear Lake, CA, 90406,
Keywords: consulting ; uncertainty ; utilities ; electrical
Abstract:

The need to account for uncertainty when making decisions is often discussed but seldom done explicitly. The challenge is even greater when there are multiple sources of uncertainty that are hard to compare. I'll discuss how we helped a major electrical utility develop models and tools to incorporate weather, consumer demand, and generation reliability uncertainty into a real-time system to minimize costs while maintaining system reliability. The lessons learned are larger than one firm and one industry. They illustrate how uncertainties can be combined and optimal decisions made despite disparate sources of uncertainty and a changing business environment.

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