Abstract #302227

This is the preliminary program for the 2003 Joint Statistical Meetings in San Francisco, California. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 2-5, 2003); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

To View the Program:
You may choose to view all activities of the program or just parts of it at any one time. All activities are arranged by date and time.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors
and not necessarily those of the ASA or its board, officers, or staff.

Back to main JSM 2003 Program page
JSM 2003 Abstract #302227
Activity Number: 41
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 3, 2003 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #302227
Title: School Mobility and High School Graduation Rates
Author(s): George E. Cave*+
Companies: Consultant
Address: #615, Washington, DC, 20037-1306,
Keywords: mobility ; high school graduation ; dropouts ; school accountability ; educational attainment ; measurement bias
Abstract:

Controversy has arisen over measurement of graduation rates and trends in dropping out of U.S. high schools. Some analysts have reproduced with recent data statistics reported regularly by the US Department of HEW during the 1970s. "On-time graduation rates" using enrollment by grade data from the CCD have two main sources of downward bias: unmeasured student mobility and unmeasured retention in grade. Simply dividing district-reported numbers of graduates by numbers of ninth grade enrollees four years previously does not produce true longitudinal completion rates, because mobility and retention in grade change the composition of cohorts over time. This paper applies a simple correction to the on-time graduation rate to lessen measurement bias and calculates rough estimates of state high-school graduation rates, comparing them to alternative estimates for recent years and from a generation ago. Empirical results in this paper could prove valuable in policy-making on school accountability measures, school finance formulas, youth development funding, access to college, and assuring adequate future availability of skilled workers.

  • The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
  • Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2003 program

JSM 2003 For information, contact meetings@amstat.org or phone (703) 684-1221. If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.
Revised March 2003