Abstract #302124

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JSM 2003 Abstract #302124
Activity Number: 369
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #302124
Title: Regional Animal Disease Infection Prevalence Estimation and Comparison, a Bayesian Model
Author(s): Eric A. Suess*+ and Ian Gardner and Wesley Orin Johnson
Companies: California State University and University of California, Davis and University of California
Address: Department of Statistics, Hayward, CA, 94542,
Keywords: herd-level testing ; Bayesian modeling ; MCMC ; Gibbs sampling ; Johnes Disease
Abstract:

A Bayesian model for animal disease infection prevalence rates is developed to estimate the prevalence of infected herds and the within herd prevalences. We assume a subsample is taken from the sampled herds within each region. We further assume that the tests results are independent Bernoulli, while the model includes correlation between the true infection statuses of animals within herds. The within-herd prevalences are allowed to vary between herds, modeled with a beta distribution having random parameters. A regional comparison of infection rates are produced. The data used is from a national survey of Johnes Disease in cattle. The model is estimated with WinBugs.

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