Abstract #302108

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JSM 2003 Abstract #302108
Activity Number: 128
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2003 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #302108
Title: The Conditional Risk: A Measure of Treatment Effect for Binary Outcomes
Author(s): Brian G. Leroux*+ and Arthur V. Peterson
Companies: University of Washington and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Address: Biostatistics, Seattle, WA, 98195-7232,
Keywords: relative difference ; added risk over background ; probability of sufficiency ; synergy ; complementary-log link
Abstract:

A variety of measures is available for quantifying the effect of a treatment or exposure on the probability of a response or event of interest. Motivated by the desire for a treatment effect measure that is interpretable as a probability, we propose a measure, called the Conditional Risk (CR), defined as the conditional probability of response under the treatment condition, given no "spontaneous" response. Under a simple condition, CR can be expressed in terms of probabilities of observable events, so that a consistent estimator of CR is available. We present applications of CR to clinical trials and epidemiologic studies, and discuss connections with existing measures for quantifying treatment effects on binary outcomes. We also give extensions to measures of interaction, treatment effect measures for ordinal factors, and to regression models with quantitative predictor variables.

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