Abstract #302013

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JSM 2003 Abstract #302013
Activity Number: 476
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 7, 2003 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Government Statistics
Abstract - #302013
Title: The Role of Guesswork in Survey Statistics
Author(s): Dwight K. French*+
Companies: Energy Information Administration
Address: 529 Orchard Way, Silver Spring, MD, 20904-6227,
Keywords: data quality ; energy ; estimation ; measurement
Abstract:

Data quality can be thought of as a continuum, ranging from very accurate and precise (e.g., validated measurements) to uncertain and perhaps wildly inaccurate and imprecise (e.g., an uninformed guess). In between are many other quality levels, including reported counts, reported ranges, engineering estimates, reasoned estimates, and "informed guesswork." Quality can be affected by either the physical limits or certainty with which an item can be determined, or circumstances of survey design, data collection, and processing (which are commonly associated with resource constraints). These circumstances include respondent's knowledge, opportunity to access information, clarity of the data concept, respondent's attitude, data and procedures to adjust for missing data. These circumstances can interact in unusual ways. A reasonable guess from a qualified, well-intentioned respondent can be superior to a value given as fact by an unqualified, disinterested, or misleading respondent. This paper traces the evolution and discusses the quality of methods used or considered to provide data on household vehicle energy use, up to and including informed guesswork

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