Abstract #302008

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JSM 2003 Abstract #302008
Activity Number: 77
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2003 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #302008
Title: Alternative Formulas for Dual System Estimation, and Implication for the 2000 Census
Author(s): Lawrence D. Brown*+ and Zhanyun Zhao
Companies: University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania
Address: Statistics Dept., Philadelphia, PA, 19104,
Keywords: dual system estimation ; capture-recapture methods ; synthetic assumption ; 2000 census
Abstract:

Although the Census Bureau attempts to enumerate the entire U.S. population, there exist systematic coverage errors, mostly undercounts. The Census Bureau conducted the 2000 Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (ACE) survey with the intention of estimating and adjusting for these errors, both nationally and for specific areas and population subgroups. This involves dividing the sampled population into poststrata according to geographic and demographic characteristics. Undercount estimates are calculated for each poststratum. An assumption of geographic homogeneity (the "synthetic assumption") is invoked in order to carry these poststrata estimates down to smaller areas such as states or localities. We investigate the nature of the homogeneity assumption applied by the Bureau, and contrast it with two alternate assumptions that could have instead been used. Adjusted estimates are computed and compared for state populations using the Bureau's method and the two alternate methods.

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