Abstract #301976

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301976
Activity Number: 239
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2003 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics & the Environment
Abstract - #301976
Title: Assessment of Deterministic Models
Author(s): Samantha Bates*+
Companies: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Address: Department of Statistics, Blacksburg, VA, 24061,
Keywords: Bayesian melding ; deterministic models ; uncertainty analysis ; model assessment
Abstract:

Bates et al. (2003) extended a special case of the Bayesian melding methodology for use with sequential multicompartment deterministic models. This approach allows us to make inferences from each model in the sequence while accounting for uncertainty in the inputs to each model. This, as well as other approaches to obtaining inference from deterministic models, is performed under the assumption that the model summarizing the process is correct. In such a case, there should be qualitative and quantitative measures of its adequacy in the context at hand. We investigate methods to quantitatively assess these deterministic models, in a Bayesian setting.

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