Abstract #301879

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301879
Activity Number: 326
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #301879
Title: A Comparison between Performances of Scoring Systems from Discriminant Analysis and Cluster Analysis Using Random Samples
Author(s): Chih-Chin Ho*+ and William Wong
Companies: Internal Revenue Service and Internal Revenue Service
Address: N:ADC:R:R, Washington, DC, 20224-0001,
Keywords:
Abstract:

Currently the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) calculates a scoring formula for each tax return and uses it as one criterion to determine which returns to audit. Periodically IRS updates this formula from a stratified random audit sample. In Wong and Ho (2002), we examined the effect of changing sample size on the scoring formula from discriminant analysis. This paper extends that work by comparing the performance of scoring formulas from discriminant analysis with scoring formulas from cluster analysis. In addition, we evaluate the scoring system performance of both the probability a unit should be audited and the magnitude of the audit result. Further, we create the scoring formulas from one year of data and evaluate the formulas on another and then reversing roles. For the evaluation, random subsamples of edited returns will be selected and their average performance and variances will be calculated.


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