Abstract #301752

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301752
Activity Number: 23
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 3, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
Abstract - #301752
Title: Bayesian Designs for Factor Screening and Response Surface Exploration
Author(s): Abhyuday Mandal*+ and Derek R. Bingham and Hugh A. Chipman
Companies: University of Michigan and University of Michigan and University of Waterloo
Address: Department of Statistics, 439 West Hall, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-1092,
Keywords: fractional factorial ; Hellinger distances ; projection ; response surface methodology ; model discrimination ; Bayesian design
Abstract:

The usual approach to response surface methodology is to first perform factor screening, followed by response surface exploration using different experiment plans. Recently, a new approach has been proposed (Cheng and Wu 2001) that aims to achieve both goals using one experimental design. The methodology uses a two-stage analysis approach which first attempts to identify the important factors and then projects the design into a more comprehensive model space for the important factors only. A design criterion based on the analysis approach was proposed. We demonstrate that this methodology can lead to spurious identification of effects. We instead proposed a new design and analysis methodology that aims to overcome these difficulties. The approach is Bayesian and attempts to more directly incorporate the standard assumptions of industrial experiments into the design and analysis.

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