Abstract #301633

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301633
Activity Number: 162
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: IMS
Abstract - #301633
Title: Extreme Value Theory for Global Climate Change
Author(s): Amy M. Grady*+
Companies: National Institute of Statistical Sciences
Address: 19 T.W. Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709-4006,
Keywords:
Abstract:

(Work in collaboration with Richard L. Smith) Research in climate change has become increasingly focused on extreme events. For example, with respect to trends in U.S. precipitation data over the past century, the general consensus appears to be an overall increasing trend in daily rainfall totals with the trend concentrated in the more "extreme" levels. This pattern of behavior seems fairly uniform across the U.S. As the emphasis in this field sharpens its investigations into questions of statistical significance, measuring uncertainty within the observational data as well as the model-generated data, and into the agreement between the observational and model-generated data, greater attention is being paid to statistical models and methodologies in extreme value theory and spatial statistics. I present some data analyses of the U.S. precipitation series from 5873 Historical Climatological Network stations. I explain the spatial integration model and methodology we have utilized to produce a mapping of the estimates and a "national" or "regional" average.

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