Abstract #301611

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301611
Activity Number: 403
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Consulting
Abstract - #301611
Title: Managing Uncertainty in New Product Development
Author(s): Richard Sonnenblick*+
Companies: Enrich Consulting Inc.
Address: 595 Millich Dr., Campbell, CA, 95008,
Keywords: R&D ; Monte Carlo ; finance ; marketing ; forecasting
Abstract:

New product development is rife with uncertainty: market size, competitive conditions, development cost, and product feasibility are all unknown to varying degrees. These uncertainties make decision making within a project and across projects a key challenge for successful R&D. We discuss the use of Monte Carlo techniques for characterizing and managing uncertainty in new product R&D. We will explain how uncertainty is characterized using probability distributions, how these distributions propagate through market and financial models, and how sensitivity and uncertainty analyses yield business insight. These methods not only enable a more accurate comparison of projects but provide insight into the factors that make each project risky, enticing, or both.

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Revised March 2003