Abstract #301606

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301606
Activity Number: 109
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2003 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Memorial
Abstract - #301606
Title: Models for Household Response in Decennial 2000 Census and ACS
Author(s): Eric V. Slud*+
Companies: University of Maryland
Address: Dept. of Mathematics, College Park, MD, 20742-0001,
Keywords: nonresponse weighting ; logistic regression ; misspecified models ; mean squared errors
Abstract:

Slud (2001) developed logistic regression models, by state, for block-group HU response to the 1990 decennial census at several stages (by mail, and to enumerators at various intervals of checkin time). Slud (2002) showed how such models could be used in weighting for nonresponse in national surveys like the American Community Survey (ACS). That work showed that while model-based weighting might improve survey estimates markedly if the underlying models fit well, the estimates might also degrade if the models fit as badly as some 1990 state response models did to data from neighboring states. The present research extends the modeling approach of Slud (2001) to data from the 2000 decennial Census and current ACS, leading to (a) qualitative comparison of 1990 vs. 2000 census response models, and (b) assessment of Census 2000 models in predicting variation across localities of ACS response in various modes. This work assesses the degree to which predictive models from earlier surveys fit data from current ones, and calculates (following Slud 2002) the magnitudes of errors to which the observed discrepancies would lead if the earlier models were used in nonresponse weighting.

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