Abstract #301440

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301440
Activity Number: 416
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Stat. Sciences
Abstract - #301440
Title: Bayesian Analysis of Time-to-Pregnancy Data
Author(s): Karen L. Price*+ and John Weldon Seaman
Companies: Eli Lilly & Company and Baylor University
Address: 6357 Harrison Ridge Blvd., Indianapolis, IN, 46236-7817,
Keywords: retrospective time-to-pregnancy data ; generalized linear models ; digit preference
Abstract:

Analyses of human fertility rates must cope with extra variability in fecundity parameters as well as a host of covariates ranging from the obvious, such as coital frequency, to the subtle, like the smoking habits of the female's mother. In human fecundity studies, researchers often observe the time required to conceive for sexually-active and noncontracepting couples. This is referred to as time-to-pregnancy (TTP) data. We focus on the use of retrospective TTP data. In this situation, only the couple in question can report the conception time. We consider the effects of digit preference due to bias in the reporting of conception times. We introduce models with sufficient flexibility to represent such bias and other causes yielding a similar lack of monotonicity in conception probabilities.

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