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Activity Number:
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442
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 7, 2003 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Business & Economics Statistics Section
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| Abstract - #301421 |
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Title:
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An Econometric Approach to Demographic Transition
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Author(s):
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Wolfgang Polasek*+ and Aram H. Arakelyan
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Companies:
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University of Bozen and University of International Economic Relations
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Address:
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Stumpergasse 56, Vienna, , A-1150, Austria
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Keywords:
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transition economics ; demographic trends ; internal migration ; Armenia population ; fertility and mortality ; infant mortality
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Abstract:
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The paper analyses the demographic trends in Armenia by economic causes for the transition period 1994-2001.The hypothesis is that the introduction of the market economy after the collapse of the Soviet Union had a similar effect in this exposed Caucasus state as in Eastern Europe (see Cornia and Paniccá 1996). We find that the demographic variables like fertility and infant mortality are strongly linked to GDP per capita while mortality is less affected by economic influences in the transition period. A structural break test for overall fertility marks significantly the start of the transition period. Surprisingly, the official figures of internal migration between rural and urban areas in Armenia are small, in total and as a share to the population. As important economic variable for modeling the internal migration was found to be the rural to urban wage ratio and the "twen" ratio. It is shown that modeling the agricultural output becomes important for explaining internal migration in a transition economy. To model internal and external migration, a better database is needed.
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