Abstract #301276

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301276
Activity Number: 174
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Computing
Abstract - #301276
Title: Estimating and Evaluating Sources of Temporal Deviation from Flight Plans
Author(s): Natasha Yakovchuk*+ and Thomas R. Willemain
Companies: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Address: 58 Jefferson St., Troy, NY, 12180-4629,
Keywords: flight time deviations ; two-way tables ; robust estimation ; air traffic delays
Abstract:

We analyzed Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data on daily temporal deviations from flight plans for commercial U.S. flights. We considered the data as a two-way table and decomposed the response in each cell as response = common effect + row effect + column effect + residual. We interpreted the effects as system, origin and destination effects, and the residuals as en route effects. We performed a comprehensive study comparing three methods of estimating effects: classical least squares, least absolute deviations (LAD), and median polish. We assessed accuracy of the estimates and outlier detection capability of the methods by conducting experiments with artificially created data. As a part of this study, we developed the scheme for generating artificial effects that mimic those obtained from the FAA data on flight time deviations. The LAD technique was chosen for estimating four components of flight time deviations. Several applications of this analysis were presented: annual reports for analysis of airports, and next-day reports showing unusual events in the system (maps of outliers). We also performed operational validation of the results against multiple databases.

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