Abstract #301157

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301157
Activity Number: 156
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Business & Economics Statistics Section
Abstract - #301157
Title: Developing a Demand-Based Approach to Optimizing Retail Prices and Promotions
Author(s): Suzanne N. Valentine*+
Companies: DemandTec, Inc.
Address: 1 Circle Star Way, San Carlos, CA, 94070-6236,
Keywords: econometrics ; software ; retail merchandising ; data mining ; demand-based management ; optimization
Abstract:

Retailers capture impressive amounts of sales-related data, hoping this information will provide better insight to pricing and promotion decisions. When harnessed, these insights have proven to be extraordinarily valuable, but analytical efforts to date have met with marginal success. Several challenges arise in building cost-effective and reliable decision support solutions for price and promotion optimization: Accurate demand model estimation for the 45 million+ store-product combinations existing in a typical national grocer; Validation for notoriously messy retail data; Sparse sales data for slow moving products; Important but highly correlated promotions; Missing records (may correspond to zero demand or out-of-stock conditions); Constantly changing product mix. Further challenges arise in design and implementation of large-scale nonlinear optimization algorithms that deliver optimal prices and promotion schedules quickly under various constraints representing a retailer's business strategy. This talk outlines a response modeling approach that mitigates the issues mentioned above. An approach to the nonlinear optimization will also be discussed.


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Revised March 2003