Abstract #301156

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JSM 2003 Abstract #301156
Activity Number: 36
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Sunday, August 3, 2003 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
Abstract - #301156
Title: A Space-time Model that Combines Simulations and Flight Test Data for Assessing Missile Launches from the F-22 Prototype Aircraft
Author(s): David M. Higdon*+
Companies: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Address: PO Box 1663 MS F600, Los Alamos, NM, 87545-0001,
Keywords: Gaussian processes ; computer model evaluation
Abstract:

The U.S. Air Force must test new aircraft in order to certify that it performs to preset specifications. One component of this certification process is missile separation, i.e., can the plane safely launch a missile without endangering the aircraft? Before ever conducting an in-flight missile launch, numerous launch simulations are carried out on a scale model in a wind tunnel. Many factors affect the actual missile trajectory. Particularly important factors are the altitude, mach number, dynamic pressure, and angle of attack of the aircraft. We develop a hierarchical space-time model that incorporates these wind tunnel simulations, expert judgement, and several actual flight tests to give a predictive model for missile trajectories as a function of the flight factors: altitude, mach number, dynamic pressure, and angle of attack. This is joint work with Mark McNulty and Bruce Letellier of Los Alamos National Lab.

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